Registry

Module Specifications

Current Academic Year 2012 - 2013
Please note that this information is subject to change.

Module Title Probability and Finance I
Module Code MS407M
School School of Mathematics
Online Module Resources

Module Co-ordinatorSemester 1: John Appleby
Semester 2: John Appleby
Autumn: John Appleby
Module TeacherJohn Appleby
NFQ level 8 Credit Rating 0
Pre-requisite None
Co-requisite None
Compatibles None
Incompatibles None
Description
This module provides a self-contained treatment of the theory of expectation (integration) and conditional expectation. While no prior knowledge of these topics is assumed , some familiarity with abstract mathematical reasoning is expected . The modules contains also a brief introduction to discrete-time Martingales concentating on their role in the theory of discrete-time finance. No prior knowledge of finance is assumed . This is primarily a "knowledge" type module

Learning Outcomes
1. State the main definitions relevant to advanced probability and asset pricing and demonstrate an understanding of these through examples and counter-examples
2. Prove the main theorems of expectation theory
3. Derive the main properties of conditional expectations from their geometric characterisation
4. Apply martingales and arbitrage methods to discrete-time financial models
5. Demonstrate an understanding of the method of pricing by replication by proving selected results of the theory of options



Workload Full-time hours per semester
Type Hours Description
Lecture36No Description
Tutorial12No Description
Independent learning150No Description
Total Workload: 198

All module information is indicative and subject to change. For further information,students are advised to refer to the University's Marks and Standards and Programme Specific Regulations at: http://www.dcu.ie/registry/examinations/index.shtml

Indicative Content and Learning Activities
Events.
probability triple, elementary approach, general sample space, Axioms, sigma algebras,probability measures, necessity of axiomatic construction, Borel sigma algebra, extension of probabilities..

Random Variables.
measurability, elementary properties, limit of sequences of random variables, probability distribution functions..

Expectation.
simple random variables, approximation of positive r.v.s by simple ones, expectation as an integral over the sample space; the main limit theorems: monotone convergence, dominated convergence ..

Conditional Expectation.
elementary definition, conditional expectation with respect to a decomposition of the sample space; conditional expectation with respect to a sub sigma algebra as an orthogonal projection; martingales..

Models of the Stock Market.
simple binomial model: options, pricing a call by replication; general model: trading strategies, arbitrage, replicating portfolio, complete and incomplete markets.The two fundamental theorems of asset pricing..

Assessment Breakdown
Continuous Assessment25% Examination Weight75%
Course Work Breakdown
TypeDescription% of totalAssessment Date
In Class Testn/a25%Week 9
Reassessment Requirement
Resit arrangements are explained by the following categories;
1 = A resit is available for all components of the module
2 = No resit is available for 100% continuous assessment module
3 = No resit is available for the continuous assessment component
This module is category 3
Indicative Reading List
  • Williams,D.: 1991, Probability with Martingales, Cambridge UP,
  • Lamberton, D., and Lapeyre, B.: 1996, Introduction to Stochastic Calculus with Financial Applications, Chapman and Hall 1996., London,
Other Resources
None
Array
Programme or List of Programmes
MFMMSc in Financial Mathematics
Timetable this semester: Timetable for MS407M
Date of Last Revision18-JUN-08
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