Sustainable Aviation Hub Translates - The Airport’s New Playbook: Building Resilience in a VUCA World

What is a VUCA World and Why Does it Matter to Aviation?

Imagine a time when the world’s air travel system, which had enjoyed consistent growth for over 50 years despite oil shocks, financial crises and terrorism, suddenly ground to a halt. This was the reality during the COVID-19 pandemic. While passenger demand has since shown a strong and faster-than-anticipated return, the underlying environment for airports has fundamentally changed.

We now live in a VUCA world, characterised by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. From geopolitical uncertainty and conflicts like the Russian invasion of Ukraine to shifting regulatory landscapes and the ever-present threat of "black swan" events, the frequency and complexity of disruptions have intensified. This unfamiliar environment demands that airports move beyond traditional planning to become strategically agile and adaptive.

How Did Researchers Investigate Post-Pandemic Airport Recovery?

The study “Adapting to uncertainty: Black swans, VUCA challenges and airport resilience strategies” examined how European airports adapted to this highly uncertain post-pandemic landscape.

The research question centred on assessing the factors affecting airports during VUCA conditions and exploring strategies to enhance their resilience. The authors defined airport resilience as "the ability of airports to respond and adapt effectively to significant unplanned disruptions or events, thus protecting airport operations and business activities".

This comprised an extensive review of mostly post-pandemic literature and industry reports, as well as:

• An analysis of passenger performance across 910 European airports from 2019 to 2023.
• A survey of experienced airport managers, mostly in Europe, was conducted in 2022 and shared through professional aviation and alumni networks and LinkedIn to gather expert insights on priorities, threats, and opportunities. Twenty-seven responses were received.

The main outcome of this work is the VUCAIR framework, a strategic tool designed to provide airport managers and policymakers with a structured template for assessing and acting on VUCA conditions.

What are the Core Findings on Airport Resilience and Strategy?

The research confirmed the overall resilience of the aviation sector. By the end of 2023, European airport passenger numbers were nearing 94% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels. However, the recovery journey revealed significant differences across the continent.

Key Insights:

• Uneven Recovery: The recovery was notably uneven. Countries below 80% of pre-pandemic levels were generally those affected by geopolitical factors, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Conversely, tourism-driven markets in Southern Europe including Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy were among the strongest performers, quickly exceeding 80% of 2019 volumes.
• Small Airports Showed Strength (But Face New Threats): Airports managing between one and ten million passengers annually demonstrated a stronger rate of recovery compared to others. However, smaller airports faced increasing pressure, including growing competition and potentially increased dependence on securing State aid.
• The LCC and Revenue Challenge:  The ACI report shows that smaller airports are becoming increasingly reliant on low-cost carriers (LCCs), which accounted for 51% of seats at regional airports by 2022 (up from 43% in 2019). This reality has heightened the need for them to focus on non-aeronautical revenue (like food, duty-free and parking), a struggle exacerbated by their lower per-passenger revenue compared to larger hubs.
• The PSO Route Advantage: Airports with under five million annual passengers that also operated Public Service Obligation (PSO) air routes showed a stronger passenger recovery in 2023 compared to similar-sized airports without them.
• Stakeholder Collaboration is Critical: Airport managers highlighted that a purposeful, solution-focused mindset supported by a well-developed stakeholder management framework is essential for effective crisis response.

Why Does This Research Matter for Policy, Industry, and the Public?

The operational environment for airports is now expected to consistently mirror the volatility of the post-pandemic period, rather than returning to the greater relative predictability of the pre-pandemic era. This necessitates a fundamental shift in how airports plan and operate.

The VUCAIR framework is a practical output designed to facilitate this shift. By translating the theoretical concept of VUCA into an actionable tool, it provides a clear template for managers and policymakers to systematically assess and proactively respond to a world increasingly defined by 'unknown unknowns'.

For the EU and its member states, including Ireland, the findings have immediate relevance. With State aid increasingly tied to strategic goals like decarbonisation and digitalisation, the need for smaller regional airports to demonstrate financial sustainability and agility is paramount. The framework stresses the importance of enhancing operational efficiency, accelerating digitalisation, and strengthening stakeholder relationships which include airlines, employees, and governments.

For instance, by using the framework, a regional airport can anticipate how a sudden geopolitical shift (Volatility) could impact its largest LCC partner (Uncertainty). Their action plan (VUCAIR) would then prioritise accelerated efforts to diversify non-aeronautical revenue streams and test contingency scenarios with its key stakeholders, including government and airlines. This approach helps build a robust 'defence' and enhances airport management focus in a challenging market.

What is the Key Takeaway for the Future of Air Travel?

The days of relying on fixed, long-term plans are over. The core takeaway for the aviation industry is that proactive, agile, and coordinated planning is now a baseline requirement for survival, not just a bonus. The VUCAIR framework provides an essential strategic map to guide this journey, helping airport leaders anticipate the next shock, whether it is economic, geopolitical, or environmental, and to turn uncertainty into an opportunity for innovation and improved performance.

Reference:

Hiney, N., Efthymiou, M. and Morgenroth, E. (2025) ‘Adapting to uncertainty: Black swans, VUCA challenges and airport resilience strategies’, Journal of the Air Transport Research Society, 4, p. 100068. doi:10.1016/j.jatrs.2025.100068.