New report from DCU, UCC and NECSI calls for Green Zone strategy to deal with COVID-19
A collaboration of international and Irish experts, including DCU’s Prof. Anthony Staines, on COVID-19 have today released a report advising Ireland to adopt a Green Zone strategy to rapidly reduce the number of Irish COVID-19 cases and speed up the country’s return to normal social, health, education, and economic activity. The report which is based on international responses to minimising COVID-19 disease and loss of life, would involve selectively imposing restrictions within Ireland, at county to county level to clear counties completely of cases.
Ireland had, until recently, been largely successful in combating COVID-19 within its borders, but with 200 cases reported in one day over the weekend, the case numbers are on the rise again and Ireland is facing a second wave of infections. According to the report from Dublin City University, University College Cork, and the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI), this second wave could be avoided with a more rigorous and targeted application of a green zone strategy that could contain the outbreak within a matter of weeks.
Green Zone Strategy
A green zone strategy is based around categorising the infection rates within subnational or localised regions, like Ireland’s counties and at smaller city area levels. Red zones are defined as having active local infections, yellow zones border these red regions, and green zones are defined as having no new cases. Ireland did deploy such a strategy earlier in the summer, limiting travel between certain counties and seeing some success. However, with a second wave of local outbreaks, the report suggests containing the disease through a more effective redeployment of this strategy.
Once red zones are identified, transmission can be dramatically reduced through limits on nonessential business and travel that need not last much longer than a month. Once red zones are identified and contained, green zones can reopen and function largely normally. Healthcare resources can then be targeted to rapidly contain any additional local outbreaks. China was able to largely contain their outbreak in 4-6 weeks. In comparison, Italy only deployed limited green zone strategies and had country-wide spread despite four months of lockdown.
Speaking about the advantages to Ireland of adopting the report’s recommendations, Prof. Yaneer Bar-Yam, President, New England Complex Systems Institute and Founder of EndCoronavirus, USA said:
“In the race against COVID19, a Green Zone strategy will enable Ireland to get a step ahead of the virus rather than being 10 steps behind. This is the best opportunity to open schools, bars, restaurants, instead of whack-a-mole outbreaks and lockdowns and every day a lack of safety.”
Prof. Anthony Staines said
“A Green Zone strategy will enable Ireland to have the best opportunity to open schools, bars, restaurants, instead of whack-a-mole outbreaks and lockdowns and every day a lack of safety. In the race against COVID-19, a Zero COVID strategy would have us a step ahead of the virus rather than being 10 steps behind.”
The report further indicates that one obstacle to deploying a green zone strategy within a country is international travel. No matter how well local cases are monitored and treated, new cases can be imported via air travel and ports. However, adopting a Green Zone strategy, will result in local economic activities resuming and bars, restaurants, churches and schools reopening as normal. Achieving zero COVID-19 within Ireland is possible. Such an accomplishment would also put the country in an attractive position for resuming trade with other green countries around the world. As countries adopt a Zero COVID strategy, travel restrictions can be eased. For now, Scotland has adopted a Zero-COVID strategy and North Ireland has signalled an intention to do so as well, opening the door to a collaboration where the Green Zone strategy serves as a foundation for the Zero COVID policy.
The paper is available at https://necsi.edu/a-green-
About NECSI
The New England Complex Systems Institute is a research and education institute based in Cambridge, MA. A pioneer in the field of complex systems science, NECSI addresses questions previously considered to be outside of the realm of scientific inquiry. Its research draws on foundations from mathematics, physics, and computer science to solve pressing problems in such areas as economics, healthcare, education, military conflict, ethnic violence, and international development. Its goal is to expand the boundaries of knowledge and to solve problems of science and society. www.necsi.edu
About ZeroCOVIDIsland
Science and Medical experts in Ireland and abroad advocating a ZeroCOVID strategy to eliminate COVID-10 from the Island of Ireland to reopen our economy and society.