Ian Kelly | Law and Government

Ian Kelly 

Ian Kelly is a PhD student at the School of Law and Government, DCU. He holds a BA (Hons) in International Relations from DCU (2008) and an MA (Hons) in International Security and Conflict Studies from DCU (2009). 

Email: ian.kelly3@mail.dcu.ie

Twitter: @ian_kelly3

Supervisor: Iain McMenamin

My doctoral research is focused on the process of regime change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), specifically those changes that occurred during the Arab uprisings in 2011 and analyses the role incumbent elites played in bringing about these changes. My research in particular focuses on the process of regime change in North Africa and to that end I have carried out field research in Egypt and Tunisia. My other research interests include the international relations of the Middle East, the politics of economic reform in North Africa, and, the relationship between popular mobilisation and political change in authoritarian systems.

Thesis: Regime Elites and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: A Comparative Analysis of the Tunisian and Egyptian Uprisings

Abstract: This thesis proposes an explanation for why elites in authoritarian regimes withdraw their support for authoritarian incumbents when faced with mass popular uprisings. Building upon the substantial scholarship on MENA elites I argue that the elite cadres supporting the region’s incumbents are drawn from four distinct elite constituencies, the military, the security services, the ruling party and the incumbent’s extended family, which each have their own distinct interests and preferences regarding regime change. In order to trace interest realisation and substantiate the argument it is tested against two endogenous and exogenous variables synthesised from the authoritarian resilience literature. Through the use of an analytic narrative supplemented with interview data gathered during fieldwork in both Tunisia and Egypt the thesis finds that the withdrawal of elite support during the occurrence of mass popular uprisings was the result of long-term processes in both regimes. First, the increasing personalisation of both regimes contributed to withdrawal of elite support from both countries’ ruling parties and militaries. And second, the implementation of structural adjustment programmes accelerated this personalisation and inhibited the abilities of both countries’ ruling parties to mobilise support for the regime during the uprisings. The thesis further finds that the degree of military involvement in the formal political sphere contributed to shaping the divergent outcomes experienced by both Tunisia and Egypt in the immediate aftermath of Ben Ali and Mubarak’s ousters.